The Neyland Report
Earning - Thriving - Giving Back

RECESSION 2020? WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

RECESSION 2020? WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

RECESSION 2020? WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

Toward the end of the year, investors were collectively clamoring for answers about a possible recession in 2020. Will it happen? How deeply will it claw its way into the national economy? How likely is a global recession? Although there is uncertainty about all of this now, some of the nation’s leading economists point to the trade war between the U.S. and China as perhaps the major factor that could influence an economic downturn.

Still, some economists are saying that a recession in 2020 is possible – as high as a 50 percent chance – but most are saying it is unlikely this year. But the perspectives of economists and those of corporate leaders and CEOs are quite different. The Conference Board, a non-profit business research organization, conducted a survey of CEOs across the globe. CEOs of every geographical region except Japan and Latin America counted recession risk as their number one fear for 2020. Uncertainty about global trade followed closely:

Despite the cautious optimism among economists, business leaders are on guard against economic downturn. Those who still worry about a recession have expressed some legitimate concerns. For example, it is worth remembering that President Trump suspended some anticipated tariffs on almost $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods. What if he reverses course and imposes those tariffs? That could have a strong negative impact on consumer spending, which could snowball into a significant economic downturn. Others point to the already severe reduction in manufacturing, which could get even worse if China in turn imposes greater tariffs on American goods. All of this remains to be seen, but President Trump is unlikely to make moves that would wound the economy leading up to the presidential election in November. Stay tuned and stay informed.

Related Articles